Tag: 2019 preview

2019 Preview: Playoffs and Awards

I don’t like it any more than you do, but this is the world we live in. Belichick will win another super bowl, the last one he needs to snap the rest of the AFC out of existence. The sooner we accept it the sooner we can stop caring about the NFL altogether.


AWARDS
Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers
Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey
Defensive Player of the Year: Bradley Chubb
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Kyler Murray
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Devin Bush
Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick
Comeback Player of the Year: Travis Frederick

2019 Preview: NFC West

Full schedule prediction here

Los Angeles Rams
Predicted record: 11-5 #2
Last year’s record: 13-3
Vegas over/under: 10.5 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
Coach Doogie Howser returns for another go at it after lighting the league on fire in 2018. This team got as close as you can to winning the super bowl without actually doing so. As the league’s youngest roster, they’ll surely learn from the experience and come back even stronger than before. You can bet Sean McVay has some more cards up his sleeve and that Jared Goff will continue his upward trajectory. Aaron Donald is perfectly primed to be the league’s first three-time consecutive Defensive Player of the Year.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
Something is up with Todd Gurley. I’m sure he’ll look fine in the first part of the season and everyone will be talking about how we overreacted to his health concerns, but when the Rams have to play on the road in the cold and Goff does his best Drew Brees In Cold Weather Games impression, I think Gurley will start fading just like he did last year. On top of that, there is now a full season of game tape on McVay’s sweeps and reverses, so he’ll have to innovate the way he innovates. It’s not that I don’t think he can do it but I would expect a super bowl hangover.

Seattle Seahawks
Predicted record: 7-9
Last year’s record: 10-6
Vegas over/under: 8.5 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
How ’bout that Jadeveon Clowney, eh? It seems every time the Seahawks are counted out they are back in the playoffs again. Russell Wilson carries the team on his shoulders better than just about any QB in the league (now that Luck is deceased and Cam is shellshocked). Have you seen DK Metcalf? He is straight out of a Marvel movie. Pete Carroll is the second best coach in the NFL, first if you only count ones who are 9/11 truthers.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
There has to be an end to the amount of roster turnover the Seahawks can withstand. The o-line never, ever gets better, and at some point that will result in Wilson missing more than a few snaps, and when that happens this team will fall the fuck apart. The whole Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf fast-and-small vs big-and-clumsy thing has about a 20% chance of actually working, and the Seahawks treat the running back position like donald trump’s staff: once you think you know who you need to be keeping tabs on, there’s someone you’ve never heard of doing the lion’s share of the work. Sometimes it seems like that works for them but you’ll notice they haven’t been in a super bowl since Marshawn Lynch fucked off to Anywhere But Seattle.

San Francisco 49ers
Predicted record: 5-11
Last year’s record: 4-12
Vegas over/under: 8 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
After 3 years of fucking around with crumbling rosters, Kyle Shanahan finally gets to put his best foot forward with a healthy — wait, what’s that? Oh, really? Oh god.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
They’re all injured again. AGAIN! Sure, Jimmy G is ready to take the field and probably won’t throw 7 INTs in a row like he did in practice and then again in Denver, and George Kittle will never be injured, but for the ninth time in the lest three years the Niners have the second best thing after being good: an excuse for being bad.

Arizona Cardinals
Predicted record: 5-11
Last year’s record: 3-13
Vegas over/under: 5-11
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
Because nobody believes in them.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
Last year’s caboose counting on a short rookie QB and a new head coach whose highest level of experience is getting fired from a college OC position? What could possibly go wrong?

2019 Preview: NFC East

Full schedule prediction here

Philadelphia Eagles
Predicted record: 12-4
Last year’s record: 9-7
Vegas over/under: 10 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
Can you name a more talented roster? Carson Wentz is finally clear of the Get Injured And Watch Nick Foles Dorian Gray His Talent chapter of his career. DJax is back. Zach Brown is here to stop being 30% of the talent on Washington’s defense and start being 5% of the talent on Philly’s. Fletch Cox isn’t injured anymore. Jordan Howard fits Doug Pederson’s run scheme better than last year’s cadre of runners. Everything is aligning for a return trip.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
This time when Wentz’s faberge knees and back give out they will be counting on Josh McCown to bail them out, which is fucking hilarious. If I learned anything from last season it’s that the Broncos are fucked long-term, and if there’s another thing I learned last season it’s that the ratio of credit given to Pederson vs Robert Reich was WAY off. Alshon Jeffrey is the only receiver the Eagles have and he’s barely a receiver.

Dallas Cowboys
Predicted record: 7-9
Last year’s record: 10-6
Vegas over/under: 9 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
Oh god, I hope not. But weirder things have happened. An exceptional running back will get you fan in this league, and Zeke is certainly that. Travis Frederick is back from treatment for a rare blood disease, which will probably give an exponential boost to the o-line. We’ll get to see what Amari Cooper does in a full year of not having to deal with the Raiders’ bullshit. Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch headline an athletic linebacker corps that powers a high-end defense.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
For all that talent, the Cowboys are still the Cowboys. They have ongoing contract disputes with every major player on their offense, and god do I hope it keeps Zeke out for a week or two. Please hold out, Ezekiel, do something right for a change. Cooper seems just as likely to decide he’s bored of football again as he is to take advantage of a full offseason in this system, which by the way is run by Kellen Fucking Moore??? The Cowboys made the playoffs last season so I would hit the under hard for them this year, they like to yoyo more than any team this side of Carolina.

New York Giants
Predicted record: 4-12
Last year’s record: 5-11
Vegas over/under: 6 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
Sa-QUADS. Eli is a NEW MAN. And when that NEW MAN gets BENCHED he’s got a HELLUVA BACKUP now! Daniel Jones did look like and honest to god quarterback out there this preseason, so who knows. The Giants focused on level-headed, subtle roster improvements this offseason. It’s almost like they realize that every time they have success it’s because a strong pass rush and run game do the heavy lifting so Eli can stumble ass-backwards into a miracle play in the last few minutes of a Patriots super bowl loss.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
Both Giants QBs looked great in the preseason. You know who else looked great in preseason? The 4-0 and subsequently 0-16 2007 Lions. This is Pat Shurmur we’re talking about. This is a team so far up its own ass that they decided sending Odell Beckham Jr. to Cleveland for no reason was better than, you know, keeping him in town. The secondary here is like Swiss cheese and the pass rush ain’t exactly Michael Strahan.

Washington Potatoes
Predicted record: 3-13
Last year’s record: 7-9
Vegas over/under: 6 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
Hey, I think Dwayne Haskins is gonna be good. And Darius Guice is a thing now. I honestly think Jay Gruden is underrated as a coach. Hell, I just won a super bowl with this franchise on Madden!
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
Because none of us have been bad enough to deserve that, right? Also because this is the most mismanaged team in the league. That Madden super bowl? It was a Super Bowl LV win on Madden 18 with the London Black Knights, quarterbacked by Colin Kaepernick. Fuck Dan Snyder.

2019 Preview: NFC South

Full schedule prediction here

Carolina Panthers
Predicted record: 11-5 #4
Last year’s record: 7-9
Vegas over/under: 8 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
What don’t the Panthers have? They’ve got one of the best QBs in the league, who should be fully healed from his shoulder surgery. They’ve got a top-5, dual-threat running back. They’ve got Bruce Irvin AND Luke Kuechley!! They’ve got a pretty reasonable schedule, and this is an odd-numbered year! That’s what the Panthers live for!
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
Fresh off a shoulder surgery, Cam now has a calf problem. Calf problems ended the careers of both Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. The receivers lack bona fides outside of Greg Olsen who is retirement age, except his foot which is three billion years old. This team is nothing special in the trenches, which doesn’t have to be a big deal but it is when you’ve got Old School Riverboat Ron Rivera calling the shots. He wants a MANLY team that WINS GAMES by GRUNTING LOUDER that the OTHER GUYS and by SWEATING all over the MUD PIT in the MIDDLE OF THE GRIDIRON.

New Orleans Saints
Predicted record: 11-5 #5
Last year’s record: 13-3
Vegas over/under: 10.5 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
If any team can claim the destiny card this season, it’s New Orleans. They’ve spent the last several years cultivating a What Should Have Been resume to rival the ’90s Buffalo Bills. Sean Payton is hell-bent on getting Drew Brees another ring before he goes, and he’s got the play calling innovations to make it happen. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas make opposing defensive coordinators want to walk into Lake Ponchartrain. It seems every year the Saints have the most talented new DB in the league. I’m hoping to draft Jared Cook tomorrow morning in my fantasy league because if you saw what Jon Gruden did with him last year just think what Payton will make of him.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
Last year Drew Brees’ arm started giving out around week 13, so this year expect that at like week 10. Even if he can get them to the postseason, what about Saints history makes you think they won’t go into Philly and lose 22-20 after the Eagles block and return a PAT with 5 seconds to go? This team’s Can’t Win The Big One curse has only been broken by Peyton Manning’s Can’t Win The Big One curse.

Atlanta Falcons
Predicted record: 11-5 #6
Last year’s record: 7-9
Vegas over/under: 8.5 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
The only thing that’s stopped the Falcons from repeating their record offensive output from 2016 is injuries. The defense is all off IR, Sark is gone, and there are more wide receivers than you can shake a stick at. Atlanta should be considered a super bowl level team that’s just had a few rough years.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
Steve Sarkesian may not be in charge of this offense anymore, but neither is Kyle Shanahan. The ghost of 28-3 will haunt this team forever. Matty Ice is just Joe Flacco with two eyebrows. Julio will catch 200 passes for 1,900 yards a 1 TD this year. Even when they’re not al hurt the defense lacks pizzaz. Try finding that on the stats sheet.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted record: 6-10
Last year’s record: 5-11
Vegas over/under: 6.5 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
They’ve got Jameis Winston and Bruce Arians in the same building, so I assume every play will be 5 wide all go. Every series will either go sack>incomplete>incomplete>touchdown or sack>incomplete>incomplete>interception.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
Winston is on his last life, and Arians will totally treat this job like he’s still retired. I don’t even need to analyze the roster or the schedule because Tampa’s self-destruction is just automatic. I could tell you they won’t win the super bowl because their entire offense will be washed out to sea in week 3 when a tsunami hits during a game and sweeps their stupid pirate ship stadium into the Gulf of Mexico and you would think it sounds about right.

2019 Preview: NFC North

Full schedule prediction here

Chicago Bears
Predicted record: 11-5 #3
Last year’s record: 12-4
Vegas over/under: 9 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
This is a team that would probably have made the super bowl last year if they had just let any random fan in the stands kick the ball for them instead of the kicker they employed. An extremely talented defense is paired with an offense that head coach Matt Nagy uses artfully to cover any deficiencies. Mitch Trubisky threw off the ‘flop’ label with gusto last year and could easily progress even more this year.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
Is that defense talented, or was it just Vic Fangio’s fear-of-god coordinating that made it seem that way? Trubisky and Khalil Mack are due for regression to their mean, and the running game might find itself a little hollow with Jordan Howard gone, and there are still no receivers of note on the roster. If the league and the first-place schedule and the improved divisional opponents catch up to Nagy and his squad, this promising team could miss the playoffs altogether.

Green Bay Packers
Predicted record: 10-6
Last year’s record: 6-9-1
Vegas over/under: 9 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
The Packers were a powder keg for the last two years. It was clear something had to change. Well, now it has, and we’ll be treated to some top-down reform in Green Bay. The defense is stacked now and the Pack have like 5 good receivers with 162 names between them, and most importantly there’s a young coaching ingenue here to passive aggressively engage in Aaron Rodgers’ power struggles. Rodgers is perhaps the best QB talent of all time, so if he doesn’t have a coach who actively hinders him, there’s no telling what this team’s limit it.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
There are already some sparks between Rodgers and Matt “the flower” LaFleur, which isn’t inherently a problem, but it hints at the notion that this transfer of power shit is not easy. I’m among those who think every team that tried to hire the new McVay this offseason was barking up the wrong tree. Jimmy Graham is still fool’s gold and I don’t trust that this team has a real running game until they prove it long-term.

Minnesota Vikings
Predicted record: 8-8
Last year’s record: 8-7-1
Vegas over/under: 9 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
Kirk Cousins thrives under good circumstances, which is exactly how I would describe Minnesota’s new offensive line and their preexisting wide receiver corps. Stars like Harrison Smith and Danielle Hunter stud a defense that Mike Zimmer keeps in good shape.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
That offense has had trouble keeping its shit together for most of the last 5 years, and the defense is actually super top-heavy, so any injuries could just blow this house of cards down. The Vikings’ kicker issues make their ceiling being this year’s Bears. Watch Dan Bailey double-doink the Vikes out of the playoffs against Chicago in the season finale. Just watch it.

Detroit Lions
Predicted record: 6-10
Last year’s record: 6-10
Vegas over/under: 6.5 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: 
Hard to find reasons why, really. I mean, weirder things have happened. I guess if they do it’ll have to be because of Matt Stafford? He’ll have to have a bounce back year (I think he will) and Matt Patricia will have to both shave and figure out what his defense is about (I don’t think he’ll do either.) I drafted Keryon Johnson in fantasy last year and he was pretty good sometimes.
Why they won’t win the super bowl: 
Johnson was also hurt or absent every time I really needed him. Stafford can progress all he wants but his targets will still be basically just Kenny Golladay and 11 guys not he other team. Of all the saps and lowlifes that have leaked from the New England Assistant Coaching sewer, Patricia is both the least likely and least deserving to find success. Fuck that guy with his own ornamental ear pencil.

2019 Preview: AFC West

Full schedule prediction here

Kansas City Chiefs
Predicted record: 12-4 #3
Last year’s record: 12-4
Vegas over/under: 10.5 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
The first step in winning a super bowl is having the best QB possible. Pat Mahomes might be the best QB possible. Between Mahomie’s ketchup-fueled left-handed 89-yard passes and the fact that literally being caught on audio recording threatening a woman you’ve already admitted to abusing and alluding in that recording to also beating a child you’re under investigation for beating isn’t enough to get suspended in the NFL, the Chiefs should score like 60 points a game.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Scoring 60 points isn’t that helpful if you give up 61 points and don’t know how time outs work. And not to doubt Mahomes, but he’s bound to regress slightly after having a top-5 season in 2018. And don’t look now but last season’s Chiefs did fall off somewhat after cutting Running Back and Weird Time To Decide To Take A Stand Against Violence Against Women Kareem Hunt, who is right on schedule to thank god and also Jesus for giving him the strength to become a better person through hard work and self reflection in his on-field postgame interview after rushing for 158 yards in Cleveland’s week 11 TNF win against Pittsburgh.

Los Angeles Chargers
Predicted record: 10-6
Last year’s record: 12-4
Vegas over/under: 10-6 (push)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Maybe teams will be willing to tank one game this season just to give Phil Rivers his shot at a super bowl. I know if I was in the league I would do everything I can to make Eli and Ben look less impressive. Rivers probably still has the juice to propel this team to success, and Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry are a great pair of pass-catchers. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are still pretty terrifying.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Melvin Gordon is LeVeon Bell-ing, which means the Chargers will have to settle for like 0.4 fewer yards per carry from some replacement-level halfback. Anybody who’s ever thought about pass blocking for this team immediately had a stroke. The secondary is weak enough that any pass opposing teams have time to compete will probably be a touchdown. Rivers is old enough to worry that come week 11 he’ll start floating passes like 2015 Potayton Manning. Of course, the Potato did win the Big One that year…

Denver Broncos
Predicted record: 8-8
Last year’s record: 6-10
Vegas over/under: 7 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: Vic Fangio is the new Bill Belichick. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb are good enough to make the Broncos a defensive juggernaut again. Joe Flacco will return to 2012 form now that his back is fixed. There have been so many shitty things that have happened to me, can this please just go right?
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
John Elway can’t build a roster for shit and it’s caught up to the Broncos. Thin spots at cornerback, inside linebacker, wide receiver, and of course the penalty machine of an offensive line, will ultimately scuttle the 2019 campaign, because I can’t have nice things. Also did I mention the hardest strength of schedule in the league? Yeah, look at who we’re playing, it’s fucking terrifying.

Oakland Raiders
Predicted record: 7-9
Last year’s record: 4-12
Vegas over/under: 6 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
There’s no way that Jon Gruden is bad enough at coaching to justify the shit he gets from the punditry. The Raiders made enough offseason moves that just by the law of averages a few of them have to work out. Hiring a renowned draft analyzer as a GM means things like nabbing Josh Jacobs, who should be considered a possible OROY. Antonio Brown seems like a headache, but our current outlook for him accounts for a whole offseason of shenanigans since the last time we were reminded how damn good he is on the field.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Mike Mayock also spent a top-10 pick on a mediocre pass rusher. It’s entirely possible that Brown’s feet will keep him at <100% for awhile, and even then, a lot depends on him clicking with Derek Carr, who seems at least from the outside like a person who wouldn’t click very well with Brown or Gruden. Also, Vontaze Burfict is on this team, which means its ceiling is blowing a sure win in the final couple of minutes of a Wild Card game in Pittsburgh.

2019 Preview: AFC East

Full schedule prediction here

New England Patriots
Predicted record: 12-4 #1
Last year’s record: 11-5
Vegas over/under: 11 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Because this is the darkest timeline. It’s Vladimir Putin’s world, and we’re just living in it. The rainforests are all burning, white supremacists run most major world governments, Old Town Road isn’t #1 anymore, and the Patriots are gonna win another super bowl.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Gronk is gone, which is great because it means I can finally truly appreciate his Giant Puppy Dog charm in the context it was born for: as a CBD spokesman and occasional TV guest star. Tom Brady faded down the stretch last year, which means he’s probably only got about 12 years left in him #GradualDecline. Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft will get distracted by trump’s reelection campaign to focus on a ring to round out Count Rugen’s left hand.

New York Jets
Predicted record: 9-7
Last year’s record: 4-12
Vegas over/under: 7.5 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Adam Gase clearly has a 90s-Cowboys-esque view on whether cocaine helps with football. They won like a ton of games so that’s probably good. Nothing will help Sam Darnold build on a low-key very good rookie campaign like having LeVeon Bell around.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Cocaine is not actually good for football, and even if it was Gase probably was actually just born that way. Bell has been out of football for a year and Darnold was pretty careless with the ball last season. This defense is nothing to write home about, and in the end the Jets are still the Jets. I had to gift them a win against the Pats to get them to 9 wins in my simulation so they’re probably a .500 unit.

Buffalo Bills
Predicted record: 7-9
Last year’s record: 6-10
Vegas over/under: 7 (push)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
This is a team only one year removed from storming the playoff! Sean McDermott has proven to be a great coach, especially when it comes to building stingy defenses. Josh Allen is one of the most athletic QBs in the league.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Allen also had like a 45% completion rate in his first year, and he’ll be counting on an aging LeSean McCoy to keep the run game going. The defense is shallow enough that McDermott’s scheming might not be enough to make them a top unit again.

Miami Dolphins
Predicted record: 3-13
Last year’s record: 7-9
Vegas over/under: 4.5 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick are the perfect one-two punch that every team is looking for at QB. And ninth time’s the charm for teams growing a new branch off the Belichick coaching tree and hoping it bears fruit. Kenyan Drake is a real NFL running back. There are players on the defense who are good at football.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
lol jk

2019 Preview: AFC South

Full schedule prediction here

Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted record: 7-9 #4
Last year’s record: 5-11
Vegas over/under: 8 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Hit the reset button. Take the Jaguars that were one blown call of a fumble return from knocking off New England and heading to the super bowl. Now replace 70th Best QB In Football Jake Jortles with a well-endowed super bowl MVP. How could this not work?
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Of course, Big Dick Nick tends to shrivel somewhat outside of Philadelphia. Then of course there’s a defense that has bled away a lot of talent since that AFC title game run, and a rushing attack that’s dependent on Leonard Fournette, whose lackluster play and penchant for trouble and injury have become somewhat of a habit.

Houston Texans
Predicted record: 6-10
Last year’s record: 11-5
Vegas over/under: 8.5 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins constitute far too much top-end offensive talent, and they should take over a few games just on their own. The defense is still rocking JJ Watt, and Houston has proven to have leg up on the rest of this division on an institutional level in the O’Brien era.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Watson can’t find Hopkins down the field if he has 0.0003 seconds to get the ball off, and Watt can’t be expected to keep other teams under 40 points on his own while Jadeveon Clowney forces his way to Seattle AB-Style. Last season the Texans feasted on the league’s easiest schedule. This year they’re in the top 5 hardest.

Tennessee Titans
Predicted record: 6-10
Last year’s record: 9-7
Vegas over/under: 8 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
The Titans have been scrappy over the last two years, proving capable of shocking even the loftiest of opponents even when they’ve struggled. Just when you think they’re about to be eliminated, they’ll go on a run. Mike Vrabel exceeded expectations in year one, and this time Delanie Walker should be around more. Marcus Mariota is about twenty times better when Walker is on the field.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
If you have two QBs, you have none. Ryan Tannehill is just slower, whiter Mariota, and yet he’ll be in charge of this team by week 7 after Mariota goes 2/14 for 7 yards and 2 INT one time. This team has spent too long overachieving, they’re due for a regression to the mean.

Indianapolis Colts
Predicted record: 5-11
Last year’s record: 10-6
Vegas over/under: 7.5 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Jacoby Brissett was the best backup in the league and now he’ll take over behind a stonewall o-line with plenty of weapons. Frank Reich might be a really, really good coach, and he should be able to milk plenty of motivation out of Andrew Luck’s self-yeet from the league. Darius Leonard is a thing.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Has anyone lost this level of talent this close to a season before? I mean there are always preseason injuries, but this is ridiculous. The best backup in the league is now like the 23rd best starter in the league, and who knows how much of the success on this roster last year was thanks to Luck? Do you really think Eric Ebron is gonna catch 74 touchdowns again? He’s not.

2019 Preview: AFC North

Full schedule prediction here

Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted record: 12-4 #2
Last year’s record: 9-6-1
Vegas over/under: 9 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Addition by subtraction. Without the distractions of Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell, the Steelers can get back to winning. JuJu Smith-Shuster and James Conner can step in to form a new triplets with Ugly Ben because that’s just what the Steelers do. They have solid coaching and one of the best o-lines in the league, as well as a young defense featuring an OROY candidate.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Subtraction by subtraction. There’s no replacing the talent of AB and LeVeon. And Pittsburgh only got rid of 2/4 of the culprits in the Brown-Bell-Roethlisberger-Tomlin Drama Machine. Even if all the pieces are here to be a competitor, the same was true of last year’s team, which missed the postseason.

Baltimore Ravens
Predicted record: 11-5 #5
Last year’s record: 10-6
Vegas over/under: 8.5 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Last year, John Harbaugh devised a whole new style of football to unleash on the NFL. With Lamar Jackson in year 2 and the RB stable fully stocked after the addition of Mark Ingram, these birds are ready to storm the league again.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
That revolutionary offense? All it took was an Anthony Lynn 7-DB defense to completely take the wheels off. This team has so few passing options that they have no chance of overcoming deficits, so they’ll be too reliant on an iffy defense to keep games in reach.

Cleveland Browns
Predicted record: 10-6 #6
Last year’s record: 7-8-1
Vegas over/under: 9 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
It takes the lowest lows (going 489-1-1 under Hue Jackson) to reach the highest highs (Baker launching it to OBJ and Jarvis Landry ad infinitum while Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon pulverize opposing passers.)
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Um, you do realize these are the Browns, right? They took a junk car and flipped it, put in a fancy engine and gave it a great paint job, and then they handed the cars to a guy with no driving experience (Freddie Kitchens) and put cheap oil in it (crappy o-line.)

Cincinnati Bengals
Predicted record: 3-13
Last year’s record: 6-10
Vegas over/under: 6 (under)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Maybe Andy Dalton is set for a fantastic year. Maybe Zac Taylor is the next Sean McVay. Maybe like half of the Bengals roster are secret superstars.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
But probably not. Probably Dalton is an average QB who becomes subpar when AJ Green is out (he is), and probably Taylor is the second-best Coach Taylor you know of, and probably only a small handful of these players will exceed expectations.