Full schedule prediction here
Kansas City Chiefs
Predicted record: 12-4 #3
Last year’s record: 12-4
Vegas over/under: 10.5 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
The first step in winning a super bowl is having the best QB possible. Pat Mahomes might be the best QB possible. Between Mahomie’s ketchup-fueled left-handed 89-yard passes and the fact that literally being caught on audio recording threatening a woman you’ve already admitted to abusing and alluding in that recording to also beating a child you’re under investigation for beating isn’t enough to get suspended in the NFL, the Chiefs should score like 60 points a game.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Scoring 60 points isn’t that helpful if you give up 61 points and don’t know how time outs work. And not to doubt Mahomes, but he’s bound to regress slightly after having a top-5 season in 2018. And don’t look now but last season’s Chiefs did fall off somewhat after cutting Running Back and Weird Time To Decide To Take A Stand Against Violence Against Women Kareem Hunt, who is right on schedule to thank god and also Jesus for giving him the strength to become a better person through hard work and self reflection in his on-field postgame interview after rushing for 158 yards in Cleveland’s week 11 TNF win against Pittsburgh.
Los Angeles Chargers
Predicted record: 10-6
Last year’s record: 12-4
Vegas over/under: 10-6 (push)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
Maybe teams will be willing to tank one game this season just to give Phil Rivers his shot at a super bowl. I know if I was in the league I would do everything I can to make Eli and Ben look less impressive. Rivers probably still has the juice to propel this team to success, and Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry are a great pair of pass-catchers. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are still pretty terrifying.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Melvin Gordon is LeVeon Bell-ing, which means the Chargers will have to settle for like 0.4 fewer yards per carry from some replacement-level halfback. Anybody who’s ever thought about pass blocking for this team immediately had a stroke. The secondary is weak enough that any pass opposing teams have time to compete will probably be a touchdown. Rivers is old enough to worry that come week 11 he’ll start floating passes like 2015 Potayton Manning. Of course, the Potato did win the Big One that year…
Denver Broncos
Predicted record: 8-8
Last year’s record: 6-10
Vegas over/under: 7 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl: Vic Fangio is the new Bill Belichick. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb are good enough to make the Broncos a defensive juggernaut again. Joe Flacco will return to 2012 form now that his back is fixed. There have been so many shitty things that have happened to me, can this please just go right?
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
John Elway can’t build a roster for shit and it’s caught up to the Broncos. Thin spots at cornerback, inside linebacker, wide receiver, and of course the penalty machine of an offensive line, will ultimately scuttle the 2019 campaign, because I can’t have nice things. Also did I mention the hardest strength of schedule in the league? Yeah, look at who we’re playing, it’s fucking terrifying.
Oakland Raiders
Predicted record: 7-9
Last year’s record: 4-12
Vegas over/under: 6 (over)
Why they’ll win the super bowl:
There’s no way that Jon Gruden is bad enough at coaching to justify the shit he gets from the punditry. The Raiders made enough offseason moves that just by the law of averages a few of them have to work out. Hiring a renowned draft analyzer as a GM means things like nabbing Josh Jacobs, who should be considered a possible OROY. Antonio Brown seems like a headache, but our current outlook for him accounts for a whole offseason of shenanigans since the last time we were reminded how damn good he is on the field.
Why they won’t win the super bowl:
Mike Mayock also spent a top-10 pick on a mediocre pass rusher. It’s entirely possible that Brown’s feet will keep him at <100% for awhile, and even then, a lot depends on him clicking with Derek Carr, who seems at least from the outside like a person who wouldn’t click very well with Brown or Gruden. Also, Vontaze Burfict is on this team, which means its ceiling is blowing a sure win in the final couple of minutes of a Wild Card game in Pittsburgh.
Dangersquirrel vs the NFL 