NFC NORTH Q1 CHECK-IN 2019

Game by game breakdown here

Green Bay Packers (3-1)
Preseason prediction: 10-6
Q1 Prediction: 11-5 #4

Something to change:
Second half offense.
Something to keep the same:
Mike Pettine!

Chicago Bears (3-1)
Preseason prediction: 11-5 #3
Q1 Prediction: 10-6 #5
Something to change:
Make Chase Daniel the starter!
Something to keep the same:
Khalil Mack is kinda good at football.

Detroit Lions (2-1-1)
Preseason prediction: 6-10
Q1 Prediction: 8-7-1
Something to change:
Tie every week.
Something to keep the same:
Ooooh, offense? In Detroit? It’s more likely than you think.

Minnesota Vikings (2-2)
Preseason prediction: 8-8
Q1 Prediction: 8-8
Something to change:
Play every game in Minnesota.
Something to keep the same:
Run Dalvin Cook on like 70% of plays.

AFC WEST Q1 CHECK-IN 2019

Game by game breakdown here

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Preseason prediction: 12-4 #3
Q1 Prediction: 12-4 #2
Something to change:
Just fucking cut Tyreek Hill, this should not be difficult.
Something to keep the same:
Maybe as soon as his shoulder heals you could arrange a “tragic and ironic accident” that re-injures it.

Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
Preseason prediction: 10-6
Q1 Prediction: 8-8
Something to change:
Injuries. Also, labor violations. Pay Melvin Gordon you cowards!
Something to keep the same:
Dude, Philip Rivers is having himself a season.

Oakland Raiders (2-2)
Preseason prediction: 7-9
Q1 Prediction: 5-11
Something to change:
Could you cut Antonio Brown every week?
Something to keep the same:
Or maybe play teams that have half their roster sidelined every week?

Denver Broncos (0-4)
Preseason prediction: 8-8
Q1 Prediction: 4-12
Something to change:
WIN SOME GODDAMN GAMES!!!!!!!!
Something to keep the same:
Oh my god it should not be that hard. Our offense is doing great! Flacco is for real! Emmanuel Sanders is all the way back and Courtland Sutton is making a leap! Philip Lindsey and Royce Freeman are a top-shelf duo! Mike Munchak has the o-line on an upward trajectory! We finally started getting sacks! Chris Harris is still amazing! But no! We have to keep inventing gut-wrenching ways to get called for roughing the passer when we didn’t rough the passer.

AFC EAST Q1 CHECK-IN 2019

Game by game breakdown here

New England Patriots (4-0)
Preseason prediction: 12-4 #1
Q1 Prediction: 14-2 #1
Something to change:
Stop being assholes.
Something to keep the same:
Probably everything football-related.

Buffalo Bills (3-1)
Preseason prediction: 7-9
Q1 Prediction: 10-6 #5
Something to change:
Josh Allen’s decision making.
Something to keep the same:
Defense, holy crap.

New York Jets (0-3)
Preseason prediction: 9-7
Q1 Prediction: 6-10
Something to change:
Sam Darnold got mono!!!!!!
Something to keep the same:
Leveon Bell is working out pretty well!

Miami Dolphins (0-4)
Preseason prediction: 3-13
Q1 Prediction: 0-16
Something to change:
Please don’t, I love seeing history.
Something to keep the same:
Never change, Dolphins.

AFC SOUTH Q1 CHECK-IN 2019

Game by game breakdown here

Houston Texans (2-2)
Preseason prediction: 6-10
Q1 Prediction: 9-7 #4
Something to change:
Something about the offense is just… Off… It’s not necessarily just pass blocking? It’s ineffable.
Something to keep the same:
But like, everything about the offense seems like it SHOULD be working!

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)
Preseason prediction: 7-9 #4
Q1 Prediction: 9-7 #6
Something to change:
Whatever they did to Jalen Ramsey they should probably fix.
Something to keep the same:
Gardner. Mothafuckin. Minshew. Please never reveal to me that he’s a child molester or a trump voter or a patriots fan. I’d rather live in blissful ignorance.

Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
Preseason prediction: 5-11
Q1 Prediction: 8-8
Something to change:
Don’t get injured so much.
Something to keep the same:
Committing to Jake Brisket. Especially the part where their o-line is stupid good.

Tennessee Titans (2-2)
Preseason prediction: 6-10
Q1 Prediction: 5-11
Something to change:
Those weeks where they look like the Dolphins.
Something to keep the same:
Those weeks where they look like the Patriots.

AFC NORTH Q1 CHECK-IN 2019

Game by game breakdown here

Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
Preseason prediction: 11-5 #5
Q1 Prediction: 11-5, #3
Something to change:
Get Earl Thomas to stick to his coverages.
Something to keep the same:
Using Lamar Jackson better than anyone else would except probably Evil Emperor Belichick.

Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Preseason prediction: 10-6 #6
Q1 Prediction: 8-8
Something to change:
Return some of those high-priced free agents to get at least one pass blocker back.
Something to keep the same:
The locker room’s us-against-the-world mentality.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)
Preseason prediction: 12-4 #2
Q1 Prediction: 6-10
Something to change:
Offense. Everything about it. Un-injure Ben? Make JuJu a #2WR again?
Something to keep the same:
Defense. Just… Keep sacking guys?

Cincinnati Bengals (0-4)
Preseason prediction: 3-13
Q1 Prediction: 4-12
Something to change:
Time to end the Andy Dalton era.
Something to keep the same:
I honestly haven’t cared enough about the Bengals to notice anything they’re doing well. Oh, John Ross! That guy’s fast. Keep being fast, little dude.

WEEK 4 RECAP 2019

After a slew of upsets and an amazing 4-11 split for home teams this week, there are only 3 teams undefeated at the Don’t-Call-It-A-Quarter-Pole, and only 2 if you don’t count the Niners because they’re a week behind now. There are also 5 winless teams, all of them coached by new HCs. Just like in real life, it seems the hegemonic powers are as steady as ever, while the lower class are desperate just to keep surviving.

PHI over GB
Now that we kinda know what a catch is, let’s get really confused about what pass interference is.

CLE over BAL
It was a close thing until the third quarter when Mark Ingram (on my fantasy team) decided to fumble, and Nick Chubb (on my opponent’s fantasy team) went off for like 200 yards and 3 TDs. Baltimore’s defense is kind of a concern, isn’t it?

LAC over MIA
They really are gonna go 0-16. Wild.

KC over DET
Many, myself included, game Detroit a chance in this game, and were not disappointed. Were it not for a 100-yard fumble return, the Lions would have squeezed this one out. But when you give Patrick Mahomes a shot at a game winning drive chances are he’s gonna do it.

CAR over HOU
I was gonna draft Christian McCaffrey in fantasy. I was gonna fuckin do it. And then the draft just… Auction drafts are complicated and I’m bad at them. Anyway, Carolina is legit somehow, so enjoy that. Kyle Allen fumbled 3 times and the Panthers still won. Of course, they also intercepted DeAndre Hopkins in the red zone, so maybe Bill O’Brien deserves some of that credit.

NE over BUF
The Pats got up on the virtue of a blocked punt TD, and stayed up thanks to knocking Josh Allen out of the game in the 4th. Driving with a minute left and a 6 point deficit Matt Barkley got blasted and airballed an INT. I was actually impressed by every aspect of the Bills’ game except the quarterbacking and the lack of dildos thrown on the field, breaking a 4-year streak.

OAK over IND
Speaking of breaking streaks: The Raiders won in Indy! Injuries caught up to the Colts, with the likes of TY Hilton and Darius Leonard off the field. If you went back in time to when the Raiders signed Jon Gruden and told me that in 2019 Team Captain Vontaze Burfict would be suspended from the team for a year for headhunting, I would have been devastatingly unsurprised.

NYG over WSH
That’s gotta feel good for Giants fans. Some guy named [look up guy’s name] replaced Saquon’s production seamlessly, and Daniel Jones had the quintessential Pretty Good Rookie game. Who knew all it took to make this team look good was replacing everything about it?

TEN over ATL
The Titans do this like three times a year. They’ve already used two of them. Wanna bet they’ll use their last one on Denver?

TB over LAR
One of the larger upsets. Remember when I said the Buccs would either look amazing week 1 and then fall apart or look terrible week 1 and then pull it together? Yeah.

SEA over ARI
An easy one for Seattle, which is nice. The Cardinals should be concerned that they’re an easy win for a division opponent in Glendale.

JAX over DEN
I was prepared to lose, but not like this. Not while losing Bradley Chubb to an ACL for the year. Not going up 17-3 and looking like it would be at least 20-3 before Flacco throws one of the stupidest INTs so far and from that point on we give up 779 rushing yards to Leonard Fournette (on my opponent’s fantasy team) and miss 13 sack opportunities every play while the Jags get 95% time of possession. Not once again scoring the go-ahead TD in the last minute only to watch the refs revive the other team’s stalling FG drive with a bullshit RTP. It’s time to start looking to next season, earlier in the season than I’ve ever witnessed before.

CHI over MIN
What the fuck even is Kirk Cousins? The Vikings can’t get consistent QB play out of him, while the Bears lost Trubisky and put in Chase Daniel without missing a beat.

NO over DAL
The Cowboys played a real cupcake schedule in the first three weeks, but I fell for it anyway. The Saints defense looked amazing in this game. If the Saints cane avoid dropping more than a couple games before Drew Brees is back, it might end up being their saving grace, keeping him fresh for the postseason push.

PIT over CIN
Oh god, Cindy is so bad. They made James Conner (on my opponent’s fantasy team) look like Ladanian Tomlinson.

Underdogs: 1-0 (5-7) 
Locks: 3-3 (15-4-1)
Survivor: 4-0 BAL, NE, GB, LAC
Don Shula Award Candidates: NE, KC, SF
Matt Millen Sashi Brown Award Candidates: CIN, MIA, DEN, WSH
Title Belt: NE defended from BUF (5 week reign)

WEEK 4 POWER RANKINGS 2019

Chiefs and Dolphins defend the top and bottom spots respectively. The Lions are the quick risers, as they are technically undefeated and have looked more competitive than the rest of the middle tier. The Chargers and Falcons are quickly putting themselves in early season holes. The Giants + a QB that can play – Saquon = I guess +4? The Ravens lost but they didn’t fall on their faces going from the worst of the worst to the best of the best for competition.

WEEK 3 RECAP 2019

It was really uncomfortable when my teams played each other, and even more uncomfortable when both of the teams I wanted to win didn’t win. Why do we invest so much energy into results we don’t have any control over? It’s a terrible idea, a scam, a hustle. A conspiracy to sell Bud Light. Well guess what? I will never, ever buy Bud Light.

JAX over TEN
Kinda smug about how hard I called this one. The Legend of Minshew is a bit much but he did play pretty well. The AFC South plot thickens…

GB over DEN
Still no sacks or turnovers. We moved the ball very well. We controlled the clock to an extraordinary degree. And then we shot ourselves in the foot a billion times. It’s pretty frustrating. But hey, the Packers are 3-0 and look like they’re just getting their sea legs! That defense is legit and Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers.

BUF over CIN
The Bengals figure to have few opportunities to win this season, and they’ve already squandered two of them. The Bills can breathe a sigh of relief for like half a second and then have a panic attack when they look at all the Patriots’ scores in the last 9 months.

DAL over MIA
Is it weird that this felt like a pretty competitive showing by the Dolphins? Oof, this is gonna be a long season y’all. Rosen was definitely an upgrade. You love to see it.

IND over ATL
The Falcons had six possessions in this game. SIX! And yet still Matt Ryan and Julio Jones managed to rack up enough fantasy points for my opponent to bury my ass in the cold ground. Jake Brisket is the Truth, so write that down.

NE over NYJ
I think Old Bill fell asleep at halftime on this one. The Patriots defense still hasn’t let up a touchdown since regulation time of the AFC Championship. That’s technically 17 quarters.

DET over PHI
Not surprised by this result. The Eagles are gonna be like this for the whole Pederson/Wentz era: a Super Bowl contender that sometimes loses back to back regular season games to middle-of-the-pack teams.

MIN over OAK
Legit shit by Dalvin Cook again. Embarrassment for the Raiders, which usually would be great but since we were embarrassed by Oakland we are now embarrassed again by the transitive property.

KC over BAL
A close scoreline but Baltimore was not actually up for the challenge of the Chiefs. Their defense in particular looked pedestrian. It’s gotta be weird for the Ravens to go from playing nobodies to playing the best team in the NFL. Hard to judge them fairly in either case.

NYG over TB
Daniel Jones comes in, sees Mike Evans record a game’s worth of stats in the first 20 minutes, loses Saquon Barkley, has 2 passing TD and 2 rushing TD, and then Tampa miss a walkoff FG to solidify New York’s 18 point comeback? Sounds about right.

CAR over ARI
Oh okay, fine, I was really fucking wrong.

NO over SEA
Every team has a Moore’s Law game, and this was Seattle’s. Trippy shit all day went wrong. And of course I think we all underestimated Sean Payton’s motivation to prove that he can make this team competitive with Teddy Bridgewater. Never underestimate Payton’s pettiness.

SF over PIT
The fact that the 49ers turned the ball over 5 times and still won tells you a lot about Pittsburgh. Mason Rudolph was only so-so, and Minkah Fitzpatrick was a standout on an overmatched defense.

HOU over LAC
The Texans are the NFL’s most generically-branded team, but Deshaun Watson is one of the most fun players in the league to watch. This Chargers slump is in the dictionary under “regression to the mean.” The AFC South plot thickens…

LAR over CLE
I don’t blame Baker so much. But Freddie Kitchens? Yeah, I blame him.

CHI over WSH
Is Dwayne Haskins starting yet?

Record: 9-7 (28-19-1)
ATS: 9-7 +$26 (28-19-1 +$36)
Underdogs: 2-4 (4-7) 
Locks: 5-0 (12-1-1)
Survivor: 3-0 BAL, NE, GB
Don Shula Award: NE, BUF, KC, GB, DAL, LAR, SF
Matt Millen Sashi Brown Award: PIT, CIN, MIA, DEN, WSH
Title Belt: NE defended from NYJ (4 week reign)