Ben RoethlisbergerMason Rudolph Andy Dalton Baker Mayfield Lamar Jackson Andrew LuckJacoby Brissett Marcus Mariota(?) Nick FolesGardner Minshew Deshaun Watson Tom Brady Ryan Fitzpatrick Josh Rosen Sam Darnold Trevor Siemian Luke Falk Josh Allen Joe Flacco Derek Carr Patrick Mahomes Philip Rivers Aaron Rodgers Kirk Cousins Mitchell Trubisky Matthew Stafford Drew Brees Teddy Bridgewater/Taysom Hill(?) Cam Newton Kyle Allen Matt Ryan Jameis Winston Carson Wentz Dak Prescott Eli ManningDaniel Jones Case Keenum Russell Wilson Jared Goff Kyler Murray Jimmy Garoppolo
Alas, we have a new #1. And no, it is not the Patriots. The Patriots don’t play an actual football team until week 9! No, the Chiefs are the top dogs now, so that’s great. The Saints, Steelers, Panthers, and Jets all descend fast with QB struggles. Tragic.
The football gods giveth, and the football gods taketh away.
TB over CAR Something is seriously wrong with Cam Newton. And I’m not talking about the glam babushka costumes he’s wearing for press conferences now, that shit is awesome. I spoke too soon saying he was back. Whether physically or mentally, he’s suffering. You hate to see it. And you should also hate to see the way the Panthers misused Christian McCaffrey in a Thursday Night home loss to an inferior division rival.
SEA over PIT HALLELUJAH! My affection for the Seahawks doubled on Sunday as they have knocked Ben Roethlisberger out for the year!! It’s all coming together! Mason Rudolph will now be the Steelers’ starter and I can dance on Roethlisberger’s grave! Will he even come back to football? I really hope not. God this is great. And on top of that, the Seahawks receiving group, which looked like a weakness at the beginning of the year, seems to have at least a decent foundation in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
GB over MIN The Packers so far are a really good defense that keeps the opposing team smothered while the offense waits for its brief moment of genius. It sounds suspect but they are 2-0 after beating their top rivals for the division in back to back weeks.
SF over CIN I should have gone with my damn gut and picked the Niners. This is what I get for not caring about games: I go with the chalk and get burned for it. But I still don’t care.
BUF over NYG Ugh, why did I pick the Giants? The Bills are by far the best New York team right now. Hell, they ARE the only team that’s actually in New York. MetLife is their home stadium too now, they just mugged it off of the Jets and Giants. If Daniel Jones doesn’t start next week I don’t even know what to make of it. They need SOMETHING to take pressure off Saquon.
BAL over ARI Good showing by Kyler Murray to hang in there, but the Ravens are unstoppable right now. I’ll take it seriously if they can keep it going next week against the Chiefs. For now they’re just beating up on the D2 of the NFL.
DET over LAC The hits keep coming for the Chargers. Detroit was so so close to starting 2-0. I’m a big believer in Kerryon Johnson and Kenny Goladay.
IND over TEN Whatever AFC South Nonsense happened on the field was overshadowed by the honest-to-god fire on the field before the game that was the result of a flamethrower that fell over. Honestly it’s a wonder it’s taken this long for that to happen, when you think about it. Very Titans-y results so far this season.
DAL over WSH Who picked the 10-point spread for this game, again? Oh yeah, that would be me. Only like 4 more semi-competent losses to go before the Potatoes start Dwayne Haskins, right?
HOU over JAX In what would somehow not be the only instance of this tactic this week, Doug Maronne opted to go for 2 after a last-minute TD that put his team down 1 before the PAT. Leonard Fournette got stuffed on the goalline. This is the kind of shit that wins or loses divisions down the road, so it’s gotta sting after the Jaguars kept the Texans (especially the ones on my fantasy team) in check all game. Then again the Texans kinda kept themselves in check. Am I really bad at fantasy football?
NE over MIA My fantasy opponent had the Patriots defense so fuck you.
KC over OAK Deceptively close for the first quarter, and then Mahomes threw 300 yards and 4 TDs in the 2nd quarter. So yeah, that’s how that’s going. I would actually like to thank the Chiefs for giving me a plausible way to keep the Patriots out of the top of my power rankings this week.
CHI over DEN I was so prepared for the Broncos to lose, but I was not prepared for that. After 3.5 quarters of shitty football from both sides, the Broncos drive to the goalline down 7, get picked off, force a punt, drive back to the goalline, score a touchdown, line up for a game-winning 2-point conversion, get flagged for delay of game, send out Brandon McManus for the game-tying PAT, miss the kick, get a do-over thanks to an offsides flag, come back out for a 2-point try, make the 2-pointer with 36 seconds left, kick the ball to Chicago, get flagged for the most bullshit roughing the passer you will ever see, get the Bears to 4th and 15 with 20 yards to field goal range, give up a 25-yard pass as time expires, have the refs decide that there was 1 second on the clock when the player went down and that the Bears called an insta-timeout, and watch Eddie Pineiro kick a game-winning 53-yarder. The Broncos need to figure out how to move on from Isaac Yiadom and Garrett Boles, because they are losing football games just the two of them. Somehow a team that has Vic Fangio, Von Miller, and Bradley Chubb, has gone 8 quarters of football with 0 sacks.
LAR over NO In a swift move by karma, Focus On The Family supporter Drew Brees is now also out of the lineup with a fuckedup hand. This happened pretty early in the Saints game and Teddy Bridgewater did not get the job done. That being said, the Saints should have had a halftime lead after Cam Jordan scoop-and-scored a clear Jared Goff fumble — except the refs blew the play dead and when the replay showed that they were completely wrong they couldn’t allow the return, just the recovery. Therefore the Saints got the ball but on their own 30, leading to a punt. The league has got to figure out how to stop certain teams from getting fucked over repeatedly, because they keep lending credence to conspiracy theories. Having that touchdown would have changed a lot of the tone and strategy of the game moving forward, so while the Saints lost by more than 7 it’s easy to think the egregious reffing mistake was at the core of it.
ATL over PHI Not actually surprised by this outcome, especially not after the Eagles spent all night dying on the field like it was All Quiet On The Western Front or something. Julio Jones took a 4th and 3 screen 50 yards to the house, what was left of Nelson Agholor dropped a long pass that got lost in the lights, Zach Ertz was tackled 2 Planck lengths short on 4th down in the red zone, and that’s all she wrote. Two NFC contenders went in and two NFC contenders came out.
CLE over NYJ “It’s so weird to hear the names of people on the Browns and have them be people I recognize. Like, that I recognize for being good. Usually if you told me a team had a mono problem I would just assume it was the Browns.” – My partner Tasha
Record: 9-7 (19-12-1) ATS: 8-7-1 +$19 (19-12-1 +$10) Underdogs: 1-2 (2-3) Locks: 3-0 (7-1-1) Survivor: 2-0 BAL, NE Don Shula Award: BAL, NE, BUF, KC, GB, DAL, SEA, LAR, SF Matt Millen Sashi Brown Award: PIT, CLE, CIN, JAX, MIA, DEN, CAR, WSH, NYG Title Belt: NE “defended” from MIA (3 week reign)
The only thing more deceptive than the preseason is week 1. To get a good record on week 2 picks, you have to know what 20% of the info from week 1 to take seriously and what 80% of it to ignore. But what really matters this week is that Sam Darnold has mono and Trevor Siemian has a mullet.
Survivor: NE Locks: BAL, NE, KC Underdogs: NYG, DET, NYJ
It is hard work not overreacting to kickoff week, but somebody’s gotta do it. Well-earned moves down for the Buccaneers (everything that could go wrong with that offense did go wrong), Jaguars (sorry Gardner), Browns (please actually be bad, that will be so funny), and Falcons (you know you’re allowed to score points, right?). Biggest positives were the Bengals, who actually played like a football team, and the Vikings, who made the Falcons look like chumps. If I could move the Dolphins further into the earth’s mantle I would. And yes, we all know the Patriots looked better than the Saints. Move along, it’s not happening.
(Benjamin Franklin voice): “In week one there are only two things that can be said to be certain; an unexpected tie, and the Broncos shitting the bed when I am emotionally vulnerable.”
GB over CHI Many people hated this game, I loved it. At least one football game every week should have a combined score under 15. I know of some smart people who think Mitchell Trubisky has a lot going for him but I definitely saw Bortles 2.0 out there.
BUF over NYJ Why did I ever put my faith in the Jets? And by faith I mean fake money. The moment CJ Mosley left the field Josh Allen turned into Steve Young. I was right about Leveon Bell though, dude was all over the field!
KC over JAX HAHAHAHAHAHA oh my god the Jags lost Nick Foles! He broke his damn clavicle! Oh the poor dude. He is just not meant to be a full-season starter! This bodes very well for my sub-.500 prediction for Jacksonville. Let the Gardner Minshew era begin! Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill was hospitalized and I hope he dies there. Mahomes spent the second half just toying with this defense anyway. Sammy Watkins fantasy owners have earned the right to some smugness.
MIN over ATL Oh… Yikes… The Falcons started with a blocked punt and just never got past that emotionally. Devonta Freeman only scored me 3 fantasy points and Dalvin Cook kicked Atlanta’s ass on his own. This is How Mike Zimmer wants to play football, so if it’s how things are gonna be the NFC North is gonna get interesting.
LAR over CAR I wasn’t wrong to think the Panthers should win this game but I was wrong to be so certain they would. Both Cam and Todd Gurley looked mostly like their old selves, though Cam had no designed runs and Gurley spent a couple series on the stationary bike. Christian McCaffrey is looking like a beast, and would have carried the Panthers to victory without some stupid turnovers. Feeling positively about both these teams.
BAL over MIA Lamar Jackson was 35/35 for 750 yards and 9 TDs by halftime. Hollywood Brown is the best WR named Brown in the NFL. I almost started Will Fuller in my flex instead of Mark Ingram this week. RGIII threw a touchdown. Josh Rosen threw and interception. Most of the Dolphins roster is trying to figure out a way off this sinking ship, all while the front office keeps drilling holes in the hull.
PHI over WSH I wasn’t scared when the Eagles were down 17-0. Desean Jackson’s return to Philly couldn’t have gone any better, and after a quarter or so of looking rusty Carson Wentz was back to top form. Philly lost Malik Jackson and Washington lost Darius Guice, so I guess we have to put up with Adrian Peterson being suited up next week.
TEN over CLE I was very prepared for this outcome. After an offseason of being counted out the Titans come out firing? Seen it before. After an offseason of hype the Browns look like crap in their debut? Seen that before too. Not gonna overreact to week 1 but the Cleveland pass blocking was a huge issue.
SEA over CIN I predicted this would be a surprisingly close game and boy was I ever right. Andy Dalton and the Bengals run defense both looked their best since 2015. Eventually thought Russell Wilson did Russell Wilson things. I was encouraged by what I saw from the Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf combo. And hey, a win is a win.
LAC over IND Our first overtime of the year! Promising stuff from Jake Brisket but Adam Vinatieri cost his team this game, which is not something you can often say. The Chargers o-line was concerning, but their running backs made Melvin Gordon’s case a whole lot thinner. And again, a win is a win for the Chargers.
SF over TB I got this one way wrong. I thought either this Bruce/Jameis thing will start out good and then suck or it’ll start slow and be low-key good by midseason, and I banked on the former, but maybe it just will suck? There was a lot of talk in the offseason about how just about every team has a QB that you can talk yourself into bringing them to the playoffs, but once the season starts things change fast. After 3 INTs, two of them returned for scores, Winston might have the hottest seat of any starter in the NFL. And you know what? Good. Fuck that guy. He’s assaulted one too many uber drivers to garner my sympathy.
DAL over NYG How about that Kellen Moore offense, eh? On a night where Pat Shurmur completely neglected his greatest weapon on offense (Saquon Barkley) the Cowboys seemed to utilize their entire roster. Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb, Michael Gallup, and Jason Witten all played a part in an unstoppable passing attack that probably added millions of dollars to Dak’s eventual contract. The Giants were what I thought they were but I have to admit I was impressed by Dallas. Please don’t let it happen again.
DET/ARI TIE!!!!!!!!! OH SHIT YEAH, A TIE! Okay so the Lions spent 3 quarters making the Cards look like a college team and making TJ Hockenson look like Shannon Sharpe, and then suddenly Kyler Murray turns into Russell Fucking Wilson and we have a goddamn game! I love the shortened overtime so much, because it combines two of my favourite things: player safety, and ties. Saw things to be optimistic about from both teams, and who the fuck knows how this result will impact standings when all is said and done? And if I may address coaches Kliff and PATRICIA!! directly: You are now in a position that few coaches have ever found themselves in, in that you are 1/16 of the way to a perfect 0-0-16 season. That’s .500 and possibly even a wild card spot! For the good of all of us, please just always tie. Sincerely, me.
NE over PIT If any team would conspire with a player on the trading block to have them traded to a different team only to force their way off of that team to sign in New England as a free agent for the cost of 0 draft picks and peanuts on the dollar to what his former teams paid him, what team do you think that would be? If you answered “a team that already has Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett looking 7 times better than they did with the teams that drafted them” then you are correct. The Pats have spent the last week wiping their asses with the Steelers, and I have sympathy for select members of that team (Mike Tomlin, JuJu, James Conner, some other players not named not Roethlisberger.)
NO over HOU Okay but can we talk about how I needed another Deshaun Watson TD to win my fantasy matchup but I also wanted the Saints to win and there was like a 3% chance of that happening BUT IT DID!?!? And way to go Refs jobbing the Saints AGAIN, AT HOME, IN PRIMETIME. They forked up the end of the half and probably cost NOLA 3 points so if we had lost you know there would be hell to pay.
OAK over DEN Don’t say I didn’t warn you. This is the Bad Place. On the same night, the league’s longest week 1 losing streak and its longest week 1 winning streak were broken. Thank god we don’t have to play on that baseball infield ever again.
Record: 10-5-1 (10-5-1) ATS: 11-5 -$9 (11-5 -$9) Underdogs: 1-1 Locks: 4-1-1 Survivor: 1-0 BAL Don Shula Award: BAL, TEN, NE, BUF, KC, LAC, OAK, GB, MIN, NO, PHI, DAL, SEA, LAR, SF Matt Millen Sashi Brown Award: PIT, CLE, CIN, IND, HOU, JAX, MIA, NYJ, DEN, CHI, ATL, TB, CAR, WSH, NYG Title Belt: NE defended from PIT (2 week reign)
Football is back! I kinda care! Here’s how this works: I pick each game straight up and against the spread. I give myself $100 each week to bet on the games. I pick one survivor pick, which has to be a new team each week, and as many locks as I want. I track my record, how much money I supposedly win or lose, and my locks and underdogs record. If you want analysis, final scores, and snark, I’ll post those each week as a thread on my twitter @1st_and_10_
Survivor: BAL Locks: KC, BAL, PHI, TB, DET, NE Underdogs: CAR, OAK
While I think the Saints won’t have a lot of luck in January, I believe in them going into week 1. Miami stays at the bottom thanks to the ceremonial ejection of Laremy Tunsil. The big movers on this chart are predictable: The permanent downgrade from Andrew Luck to Jake Brisket plummets the Colts 11 spots, the Chargers get docked for lacking Derwin James and Melvin Gordon and Russell Okung, the Seahawks and Texans swap positions like they swapped Jadeveon Clowney, and the Panthers knock on the top 10 just because I went over their schedule and think they’ve got a playoff run in them.
ROOTING INTERESTS:
Fuck the Patriots! Go Broncos! Everything between Philly and Atlanta is really just apathy.
I don’t like it any more than you do, but this is the world we live in. Belichick will win another super bowl, the last one he needs to snap the rest of the AFC out of existence. The sooner we accept it the sooner we can stop caring about the NFL altogether.
AWARDS Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey Defensive Player of the Year: Bradley Chubb Offensive Rookie of the Year: Kyler Murray Defensive Rookie of the Year: Devin Bush Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick Comeback Player of the Year: Travis Frederick
Los Angeles Rams Predicted record: 11-5 #2 Last year’s record: 13-3 Vegas over/under: 10.5 (over) Why they’ll win the super bowl: Coach Doogie Howser returns for another go at it after lighting the league on fire in 2018. This team got as close as you can to winning the super bowl without actually doing so. As the league’s youngest roster, they’ll surely learn from the experience and come back even stronger than before. You can bet Sean McVay has some more cards up his sleeve and that Jared Goff will continue his upward trajectory. Aaron Donald is perfectly primed to be the league’s first three-time consecutive Defensive Player of the Year. Why they won’t win the super bowl: Something is up with Todd Gurley. I’m sure he’ll look fine in the first part of the season and everyone will be talking about how we overreacted to his health concerns, but when the Rams have to play on the road in the cold and Goff does his best Drew Brees In Cold Weather Games impression, I think Gurley will start fading just like he did last year. On top of that, there is now a full season of game tape on McVay’s sweeps and reverses, so he’ll have to innovate the way he innovates. It’s not that I don’t think he can do it but I would expect a super bowl hangover.
Seattle Seahawks Predicted record: 7-9 Last year’s record: 10-6 Vegas over/under: 8.5 (under) Why they’ll win the super bowl: How ’bout that Jadeveon Clowney, eh? It seems every time the Seahawks are counted out they are back in the playoffs again. Russell Wilson carries the team on his shoulders better than just about any QB in the league (now that Luck is deceased and Cam is shellshocked). Have you seen DK Metcalf? He is straight out of a Marvel movie. Pete Carroll is the second best coach in the NFL, first if you only count ones who are 9/11 truthers. Why they won’t win the super bowl: There has to be an end to the amount of roster turnover the Seahawks can withstand. The o-line never, ever gets better, and at some point that will result in Wilson missing more than a few snaps, and when that happens this team will fall the fuck apart. The whole Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf fast-and-small vs big-and-clumsy thing has about a 20% chance of actually working, and the Seahawks treat the running back position like donald trump’s staff: once you think you know who you need to be keeping tabs on, there’s someone you’ve never heard of doing the lion’s share of the work. Sometimes it seems like that works for them but you’ll notice they haven’t been in a super bowl since Marshawn Lynch fucked off to Anywhere But Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers Predicted record: 5-11 Last year’s record: 4-12 Vegas over/under: 8 (under) Why they’ll win the super bowl: After 3 years of fucking around with crumbling rosters, Kyle Shanahan finally gets to put his best foot forward with a healthy — wait, what’s that? Oh, really? Oh god. Why they won’t win the super bowl: They’re all injured again. AGAIN! Sure, Jimmy G is ready to take the field and probably won’t throw 7 INTs in a row like he did in practice and then again in Denver, and George Kittle will never be injured, but for the ninth time in the lest three years the Niners have the second best thing after being good: an excuse for being bad.
Arizona Cardinals Predicted record: 5-11 Last year’s record: 3-13 Vegas over/under: 5-11 Why they’ll win the super bowl: Because nobody believes in them. Why they won’t win the super bowl: Last year’s caboose counting on a short rookie QB and a new head coach whose highest level of experience is getting fired from a college OC position? What could possibly go wrong?
Dangersquirrel vs the NFL 