Week 1 Recap 2021

Locks: 3-0
Survivor: 1-0 (SF)
Underdogs: 4-3
Title Belt: TB defended from DAL (3 week reign)
Needles: 2-1-0 [Threaded-fave covered-dog won]

Well, week 1 picks were pretty rough. I am $71 in the red on my (imaginary) ATS gambling exercise, meaning I will only have $29 to bet next week. I went .500 straight-up, though I will point out that I was 4-3 picking underdogs which means Vegas was only 7-9 this week. Anyway, I feel like I should have some kind of poignant feelings about football being back, but I don’t. It used to make me so happy, but right now it just feels like another thing going on even though it seems absurd for anyone to be doing anything but fighting COVID, climate change, and fascism/neocolonialism. But if football helped you recharge your revolutionary batteries at all, good for you. I hope it did for me. Still not sure.

  • Tampa squeaks one out over Dallas
    I think I’m among those who underestimated the return of Dak Prescott. He made this game actually pretty interesting, as the Bucs outplayed the Boys but still found themselves needing a field goal to win with like a minute left. But of course, the world bends to Tom Brady’s wishes, so it was easy for them. Wish both teams could have lost.
  • Seahawks take the Colts to pound town, no not that pound town the other one
    When I picked the Colts to win I forgot one key statistic: Russell Wilson fucking rules. If the Seahawks have as potent a defensive front as they showed against what is theoretically one of the best o-lines in football on Sunday, maybe they’ll avoid another late-season collapse after all.
  • Niners beat Lions despite the Niners’ best efforts
    San Francisco fumbled the exchange on their first snap, then went up like 41-10 before the 4th quarter. Then they let the Lions execute what fell just short of an all-time comeback in the last 5 minutes or so to close to 8 points before the final bell. I hope that this is indicative of the Lions being an entertaining bunch to watch whether they’re playing well or not, but it might just indicate that losing Jason Verrett was big for the San Fran D and that Kyle Shanahan is still obsessed with squandering huge leads.
  • Arizona whoops ass up on the Titoons
    Week 1 is often illusory. It’s not wise to change your opinions of a team based on this week alone. But I’m totally buying whatever Kliff Kingsbury is selling here. Kyler Murray just sliced and diced the Tennessee defense in a way I didn’t expect at all, and the Cards’ big-ticket free agency additions like JJ Watt contributed right away, including drawing attention away from Calais Campbell so he could rack up 5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Now they just have to keep it going for a full season this time.
  • San Diangeles Chargers beat Washington Fitztragedies
    The Chargers’ ability to squeeze enough points out of that Washington defense shouldn’t be underplayed, but my enthusiasm is severely dampened by the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick’s hip was sublimated in this game, leaving Tyler Heinecke to do just enough to not quite win. San Diego LA should feel good about getting a W out of a trip to the East Coast, but in terms of actually learning anything, this is a wash.
  • Philly falcon-punches Atlanta
    When I picked ATL to win this game I forgot one key statistic: the Falcons are ass.
  • Texans defy expectations by winning a game in 2021, over some college team called the “Jaguars”
    It’s one thing to lose a game that’s the consensus lowest-combined-ranking matchup of the week. It’s another to get blown out easily by a team that’s spent more time in the offseason dealing with organizational drama than actually putting together a roster and coaching staff. Shame on me for buying the Trevor Lawrence hype and for listening to the Tyrod Taylor haterz. Now the Texans sit alone atop the AFC South. What a world.
  • Sam Darnold parades new gf Panthers in front of resentful ex Jets
    The Robby Anderson Factor comes up big, though not as big as the Christian McCaffrey factor, which devastated both the Jets and my fantasy matchup. Makhi Becton [sp?] is out for awhile, but honestly the way this roster looks, the Jets might want to consider declaring it a season-long injury.
  • Steelers pull rug out from under Bills
    Another game where I would have loved for them to both lose. And in a way they did, because the Bills regressed on offense and the Steelers needed some lucky bounces to pull off the upset anyway. I’ve rarely been so right about an outcome while being so wrong about the details in my prediction. If this opens the door for the Pats to take back the East I will be even madder at the Steelers, though.
  • Bengals rob us of the Vikings tie we deserved
    Drew Magary’s son proved up for the challenge of vanquishing Magary’s home team with a slate of plucky moves that ended in a buzzer-beating OT field goal after a bold comeback from the Vikings. Cincinnati leaned on a run game that just barely scrapped it out enough to hold control of the game. It was honestly a pretty pitiful outing on both sides, but at least the right team won. Suck it, Kirk. No, I am not looking up Joe Burrow’s vaccination status, let me have this one.
  • Don’t look now but the Broncos beat the Giants [side-eye emoji]
    I guess I was being a defeatist when I picked the Giants! New York had the kind of game Denver has seen a billion times in the last 5 years, where the teams seem fairly even for most of the game, but the opponent is a million times better in key moments. Teddy Bridgewater had a career game, and both he and Vic Fangio were uncharacteristically gutsy, especially on their 4 converted 4th downs. Von Miller’s return went better than I expected (2 sacks 4 tfl) and Patrick Surtain gets a passing grade for his debut, despite a couple blips. With such a weak schedule, playing like this consistently would mean an easy wild card berth. Meanwhile Saquon looked hobbled still, Daniel Jones once again struggled with ball security, and the Giants just looked pretty shite, casing doubts on them as a popular sleeper pick in their equally-shite division.
  • Saints coast past whatever group of sadsacks stumbled out of the Packers locker room in Jacksonville
    It sure didn’t look like the actual Packers. I picked the Saints to win but nobody expected this to be the least competitive matchup of the week. It was over by the end of the first quarter because Green Bay was just no match for whatever was going on on the other side of the ball. I doubt it’s fully indicative of how things will look for either team by season’s end, but at the very least New Orleans leveraged an offseason of legit turmoil and tragedy into a decisive win over a team that spent the same offseason on petty and farcical drama.
  • Browns are really gonna do it, they’re gonna beat the — oh. Chiefs win.
    For some reason the only team Kansas City can’t come back on from a 73-12 deficit at the 2-minute warning is the only team I hate as much as I hate the Chiefs themselves.
  • Dolphins score 1 more point than the Patriots
    And you know what? I’ll take it — which I think is what most Pats fans are saying about Mac Jones’ performance this week.
  • Rams make Matt Stafford truthers and Justin Fields truthers alike cry tears of joy
    The Bears could have been competitive in that game. In fact they were close as it was. Now just imagine if the whole game was played by the QB who came out for one play, scrambled for a TD, and then had to sit and watch the Red BB Gun drown in his own blockers while Stafford threw to receivers open wider than he’s ever seen before.
  • Raiders make clowns of the field, the ball, the Ravens, the refs, all of us watching from home, and just the sport of football in general
    Week 1 saved best for last. It was a pretty standard okay/fine game until late in the 4th quarter, when it became an unbelievable string of comebacks on comebacks on comebacks. I was at work and had the game streaming on my phone because I’m the worst. I went on my break during the 4th quarter and got to see all the fireworks. Each team had this game wrapped up at least 3 times. Incredible. Fuck the Raiders and their stupid Darth Roomba stadium.

Week 1 Predictions 2021

Oh no. We are back, apparently. That can’t be good. I’ll be posting picks this season, but honestly, between my wedding, trying to keep myself solvent, going back to school, the pandemic, the climate apocalypse, and the nesting doll of political crises that we seem to be unpacking daily, I am not putting a lot of thought or effort into them. Scores predictions will be on my twitter. Enjoy, I guess.

Survivor: SF
Locks: TB, SF, LAR
Underdogs: IND, LAC, NYJ, PIT, CIN, NYG, NO
Needles: SF/DET, KC/CLE, LAR/CHI

Clear Eyes, Full Hearts, Can’t Lose!

2021 KICKOFF POWER RANKINGS + ROOTING INTEREST RANKINGS

POWER RANKINGS – WEEK 1

I didn’t do any rankings over the offseason, and it felt something akin to actually having a life, so I think I’ll continue doing that.

Despite the free agency, draft, training camps, and preseason that have all happened since Super Bowl Whichever-One-That-Was, most teams didn’t move a lot. That probably means I wasn’t paying much attention and will be surprised by who is better and who is worse this season.

Houston did manage to take over the bottom spot in dramatic fashion, as they spent the last several months imploding. Two teams moved significantly, the 49ers and the Cowboys. Dallas got their QB back and SF hit refresh on a lot of fronts, so we’ll see if I’m right about the impact of those things.

Please, someone, give me a good reason to kick KC and TB out of the top spots!

Scroll down for a BONUS!!

WHO I’M ROOTING FOR THIS SEASON

As always, the Broncos are first. I’ve now lost two of the women in my life who made me a Broncos fan, so that’s going strong. The Seahawks, Packers, and Saints round out the teams I’m actually rooting for, though Green Bay and NOLA are testing me. In fact if I’m perfectly honest I’m not really rooting for the Saints while Jameis starts, don’t tell anyone.

After that it doesn’t really matter. The Browns are feel-good, the Lions being good would be hilarious, then there are the teams I just wouldn’t mind because I’ve liked the organization or the city or a player or coach. The Bills and Vikings are both usually higher up my list but they’re worked hard on becoming the face of vaccine skepticism in the league and I just fucking hate them for it. Washington changing its name and signing Ryan Fitzpatrick catapults it out of the bottom spot, leaving a vacuum that both super bowl teams from last year are pretty much filling together.

SEASON PREDICTIONS 2021

What are we all doing here? There’s still a pandemic happening. There’s a climate crisis finally making itself undeniably known as opposed to just obviously impending. Liberals are finally starting to realize that America’s fascism problem was not voted out of office, though it’ll still probably take them at least 8 more years to realize it’s baked into the fabric of the country. My wedding is in less than a month. The last super bowl took place while I was at my grandmother’s funeral. They keep moving the release date for the new Ghostbusters movie.

And yet the NFL persists. Not only that but it’s 17 games now over the course of 18 weeks. All of this with no extra compensation for the players. Nice union you’ve got there, fellas. I’m sure I’ll be happy about the extra week of games at some point, but it is going to take me at least 10 years to adjust to the final records of every team adding up to 17 instead of 16. I mean, I still call the Chargers “San Diego” so maybe I’ll just never adjust. It’s the NFL, it’s not worth adjusting to.

My full game-by-game season prediction can be found here. The division-by-division results, along with bracket and awards predictions, are below.

AFC NORTH

I gave the Browns the division, but I am wary of my own prediction because they had an easy schedule and a good record in close games last season, a statistic that notoriously predicts regression the next season. The Ravens should keep reaching the postseason most years through the Lamar Jackson era unless he gets COVID. I think Ben Roethlisberger will start the season looking like he’s “back” and then be cooked again by December, because that’s how these things work. The poor Bengals are trying their best but still an easy win for most of their opponents.

AFC SOUTH

Still the laughingstock division. The Titans might not be able to ride Derrick Henry to division titles forever, but with the Colts helmed by last year’s Worst Starting QB, the Jags breaking in a new everything, and the Texans acting like a one-man relegation league, it should be easy for them to squeak into the playoffs.

AFC EAST

Between the Bills’ antivaxxing, the Pats’ trump connections, the Dolphins’ authoritarian anti-protest rules during the Kaepernick era, and the Jets’ owner literally working for the trump administration as UK ambassador… Is this the most politically awful division in the league?
Unfortunately, I see more success for Macorkle Jones than for Tua, so this division is gonna be no fun at all. Zach Wilson will be robbed of OROY honors by his team’s terrible roster.

AFC WEST

I did not manipulate the results of my predictions to get the Broncos into the playoffs, it just turns out we have a devastatingly easy schedule. The Chargers could take that spot, though, if the coaching from Brandon Staley is good. I know the neutral fan would much rather see Justin Herbert in the playoffs than Teddy Two-Gloves. Doesn’t matter either way because one fluke loss to Gruden every once in awhile seems to be the only bone the Chiefs throw the rest of the division.

NFC NORTH

Easiest division to predict. The Packers aren’t getting to the Super Bowl because they’re cursed but the North belongs to them until Rodgers actually leaves. The Bears won’t start Justin Fields until it’s too late to actually find out if Matt Nagy can run an offense with a real QB. Mike Zimmer will quit after Kirk Cousins super spreads through the locker room in week 5. I keep wondering if everyone is sleeping on the Lions just because they look like a terrible idea on paper. But… Nah, that’s ridiculous, right?

NFC SOUTH

I will still hope for the Saints to win this division, since I don’t wish to be disowned by the city of New Orleans and I have Alvin Kamara on my fantasy team, but they sure are making rooting hard with Jameis Winston starting. The Buccaneers can go die in a pit, though. Panthers sneak in because I’m banking of Sam Darnold being the beneficiary of the No More Adam Gase Bump. The Falcons really should win more than 3 games but I had a hard time finding them on the schedule.

NFC EAST

I find myself almost rooting for the Washingtons? I know the owner and organization are still sex-trafficking garbage but Ryan Fitzpatrick leading a dumpster fire team with no name is just poetry. Their defense is the best unit in this division, but it’s really anyone’s game. The Giants snuck into the 7 seed in my projection and might have the most balanced roster, and Dak’s return is huge for the Cowboys, so I wouldn’t count either of them out. You can count out the Eagles though.

NFC WEST

Is my pick of the Seahawks as the best non-playoff record in the NFC self-flagellating? Maybe a little, but come on, how long can they just keep avoiding the inevitable collapse? They shouldn’t be considered contenders like the Niners (who could upend the idea that you can’t have a true rotation at the QB position) and Rams (who I would love to see do well just because Matt Stafford [sorta] deserves it). The Cardinals will see the end of the Cliff Kingsbury experiment, including an entertaining tie with Dan Quinn’s Lions.

AWARDS:

MVP: Josh Allen
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan
Offensive Player of the Year: Patrick Mahomes
Defensive Player of the Year: Aaron Donald
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Justin Fields
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons
Comeback Player of the Year: Dak Prescott

The award for Best Statistical QB Season will be Josh Allen, Best QB Who Won MVP Too Recently To Get It Again is Mahomes. Best QB Who’s A Rookie is Fields, but I could see it going to any of the 4 I expect to start this season (Lawrence, Wilson, Jones). The hot pick for DPOY is TJ Watt but he might not even play the whole season if he doesn’t get his contract. If the voters can find an excuse to give DROY and CPOY to the Cowboys instead of to Patrick Surtain II and Joe Burrow.

The Browns are gonna win the Super Bowl!!! I don’t know how much I actually believe this, but I might as well predict it, because picking a Super Bowl winner without any football to actually base it on is a fools errand. And yet here I am doing it despite nobody asking me or even wanting me to. Well, tough. Cleveland will storm through Belichick, Josh Allen, and Kansas City to beat San Fran in a slugfest. Biggest upset is probably Daniel Jones’ giants making the Pack one-and-done, but doesn’t that sound like something that would happen?

Well, that’s it, now you know how the whole season is going to go. Enjoy the season, or more accurately, please do not enjoy the season because the NFL does not deserve any of our support. Fuck those guys.

CONFERENCE ROUND RANKINGS 2021

Houston and Philly join the very bottom where the Institutionally Inept go. The Jags get a brief reprieve while I overreact to the additions of Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence, and leave the poor, possibly undeserving Lions in last place, a spot they’ve only occupied once before, in week 9 of 2015. The Bills take the #2 spot from Chad Henne’s Chiefs, and the Bears and Saints both take dips.

DIVISIONAL RECAP 2020

Underdogs: 1-2 (33-37)
Locks: 0-0 (75-21)
Brady/Bellichick Breakup Scorekeeper: -_- (Bill: 5 Tom: 10)
Title Belt: LAR lose to GB (1 week reign)
Needles: 0-1-0 (16-29-15) [Threaded-fave covered-dog won]

  • Packers over Rams
    Is anyone in this game NOT named Aaron?
  • Bills over Ravens
    There was a sequence in this game where Lamar Jackson threw a 101-yard pick-6 and got concussed on a broken 3rd down in the span of like 2 minutes and it sucked. Justin Tucker doinked 2 kicks from less than 50 yards. It was so weird.
  • Chiefs over Browns
    I’m so angry about this one. The final score should be 24-19 but the worst rule in sports, the fumble-touchback. If you don’t understand why it’s the worst, I dunno how to help you. Hopefully the prognosis on Mahomes’ concussion is good because I do not want to see Chad Henne play a conference championship, as much as I’d like an easy path to a Not Chiefs winner.
  • FYTB over NOLA
    UUUUUUUUUGH FUCK.